Volume 13, No.1, January 2002

Change in Population of Missouri Pre-school and School Age Children and Youth, 1990-2000

The population of Missouri school age children and youth (age 5-17) increased from 945,582 in 1990 to 1,057,794 in 2000 – an increase of 112,212. That translates into an 11.9 percent growth rate for the 5-17 age cohort, well above the 9.3 percent growth for the total population. The growth rate of this cohort in the 1990s is a significant turnaround from the 6.2 percent decline in that age cohort during the 1980s. The recent dramatic change of school age population helps explain the shortage of classrooms in many school districts around the state.

However, the pattern of change in school age population has gone down and then back up during the past 20 years. In 1980 there were 1,008,339 children and youth age 5-17. That number dropped to 945,582 in 1990 but then increased to 1,057,794 in 2000. The change from 1990 to 2000 was significant, but the change from 1980 to 2000 was less impressive.

Change in the pre-school population (age 0-5) was much different. The pre-school population increased from 369,244 in 1990 to 369,898 in 2000, an increase of only 654 (0.2 percent). That is well below the 4.2 percent increase of this age cohort during the 1980s.

The difference in the rate of change in the number of school age children and youth compared with the number of pre-school children is directly associated with the advancing age of the baby boom generation. The baby boom generation reached the 35-54 age group by 2000.

Implications for School Enrollment and Demand for Child Care Services

The children of especially the younger half of the baby boom cohort (age 35-44) are most likely to be those in the 5-17 age range. It is because of the unusually large size of the parent population of school age children and youth that their numbers increased significantly during the 1990’s. Many school districts found it necessary to add classrooms or school buildings to accommodate the increased elementary and secondary enrollments.

Important with regard to the very small 1990 to 2000 increase in the number of pre-school children is what happened to the size of the potential parent cohort. Generally most of the very large baby boom cohort moved past the most probable child bearing years. During the same time the size of the 25-34 age cohort declined by 13 percent from 1990 to 2000 and the size of the 18-24 age cohort increased by only 3.6 percent (Graph 1). Since most births occur to parents in the 18-34 age range the decline in their numbers helps explain the very small increase in the pre-school population from 1990 to 2000.

The discussion above pertains to changes in the children and youth population in Missouri but there are very great differences in the extent and rate of change among the different counties and regions.

Reference to Graph 1 shows that the 18-24 year age cohort only increased by 3.6 percent during the 1990s. As a consequence enrollments in higher education institutions has remained relatively flat throughout the 1990s and the size of the entry level work force has not been sufficient to meet the demand. However, as has been discussed there has been a recovery in the size of the 5-17 age cohort during the 1990s increasing by 112,000 from its low of 945,000 in 1990. Those data offer a prospect of larger higher education enrollment and larger work force in the short run.

However, the Census also shows a broad based decline in the population of pre-school children. Some parts of the state have experienced significant growth in the size of the pre-school cohort but for the most part those increases are linked to recent immigration of younger families attracted by local work opportunities. In many parts of the state it can be expected that elementary school enrollments will decline.

Chart 1

Map 1

Table 1