State Overview -- Missouri 2005 Population Estimates Document Continued Slow Growth
Population estimates for 2005 released this past week showed Missouri’s population reached 5,800,310, an increase of 203,627 (3.6 percent) since 2000. The population increase over the past five years was a result of 115,403 more births than deaths and a net in-migration of 88,224.
| Map 1 click map for larger version 
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Map 2 click map for larger version 
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As shown on Map 1, there were 78 counties which gained population since 2000 with the remaining 37 counties having declined. As Map 2 shows most of the 29 counties gaining 5.0 percent or more in population are found in the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan areas and in the southwest quarter of Missouri. A majority of the remaining 48 counties gaining population are found south of I-70. The map shows that 25 of the 38 counties losing population from 2000-2005 are in north Missouri with eight additional declining counties concentrated in the Southeast Ozarks and the Bootheel.
The greatest numerical population gains from 2000 through 2005 have been in metropolitan counties. By far the greatest gain occurred in St. Charles County with an increase of 46,047, followed by an increase of 18,072 in Clay County, 15,570 in Jefferson, 12,981 in Christian, 12,140 in Cass, 10,393 in Greene, 8,783 in Lincoln, 8,310 in Platte, 8079 in Jackson and 7,872 in Boone Counties. The population gain in those ten counties totaled 148,247, nearly three-fourths (73 percent) of Missouri’s total population increase from 2000-2005. That occurred even though those 10 counties only account for 36 percent of Missouri’s total population in 2005.
Components of Population Change 2000-2005
Difference between births and deaths
From 2000-2005 there were 115,403 more babies born in Missouri than the number of Missourians who died. That natural increase accounted for 57 percent of Missouri population growth during the past five years. During the same five years there were 88,224 more people who moved into Missouri counties from other places than the number who moved away. That net in-migration from 2000-2005 accounted for 43 percent of Missouri’s 2000-2005 population growth.
| Map 3 click map for larger version 
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Map 4 click map for larger version 
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As indicated on Map 3 there are 41 counties in which more deaths than births occurred between 2000 and 2005. Those counties are all relatively small population rural counties but are rather uniformly scattered across the regions of the state. There were 20 counties having more deaths than births located north of the Missouri River, 11 located in rural southwest Missouri and 10 counties located in rural southeast Missouri. The counties having more deaths than births are also counties which had a relatively high proportion of population age 65 and older according to the 2004 population estimates. Most of the counties having had more births than deaths have a relatively large population and/or are located in metropolitan suburbs.
Changes in migration to and from counties 2000-2005
Map 4 shows there were 37 counties which had a net out-migration of population from the county between 2000-2005. But the map also shows there were 78 counties which had a net in-migration from 2000-2005. Among those counties there were 15 metropolitan counties in which at least 2,500 more persons moved into each county than moved away from 2000-2005. Those counties were led by St. Charles County which had a net in-migration of 32,664 during those five years. However, it is apparent that a majority of persons migrating to St. Charles County most likely moved from adjacent St. Louis County which led the state with 26,708 more people moving from their county than moving in from 2000-2005.
Following St. Louis County, there were only five other counties that had a net out-migration of more than 1,000 from 2000-2005. Those counties, in order of their net out-migration, included Jackson County with an out-migration of 15,273, St. Louis City with an out-migration of 11,628 and Buchanan County with a net out-migration of only 2,083. It is significant that only Pemiscot County, with an out-migration of 1,212, and New Madrid County with an out-migration of 1,203, both rural counties in the Bootheel, were the only other counties having a net out-migration of more than 1,000 between 2000 and 2005.
A majority of the 37 counties having a net out-migration of less than 1000 between 2000-2005 were relatively small population rural counties largely concentrated in north Missouri.
The Rate of Missouri Population Growth from 2000-2005
If the 2000-2005 rates of population growth continue at the same rate from 2005-2010 Missouri’s population can be expected to reach a total of more 6.0 million at the time of the 2010 Census – an increase of 7.3 percent during the decade. That will be a growth rate somewhat less than the 9.3 percent population increase during the 1990s.
This file last modified Friday May 08, 2009, 14:32:17
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OSEDA, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis Telephone: (573)882-7396
240 Heinkel Building, Columbia, MO 65211