State Overview -- Missouri 2004 Population Estimates Document Continued Slow Growth
Population estimates for 2004 released this past week showed Missouri’s population reached 5,754,618, an increase of nearly 158,000 (2.8 percent) since 2000. The population increase over the past four years was a result of 88,807 more births than deaths and a net in-migration of 69,128 - see Table 1.
| Map 1 click map for larger version 
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Overall, 75 counties have gained population since 2000 with the remaining 40 counties having declined. As Map 1 shows, most of the 30 counties gaining 4 percent or more in population are found on the periphery of the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan areas and in the southwest quarter of Missouri. A majority of remaining counties gaining population are found south of I-70. The map also shows that most of the counties losing population are in north Missouri with some additional declining counties scattered across the Ozarks and in the Bootheel.
The greatest numerical gains in population since 2000 have been in metropolitan counties. By far the greatest gain occurred in St. Charles County with an increase of 36,841, followed by an increase of 13,582 in Clay County, 12,290 in Jefferson County, 9,988 in Christian County, 9,501 in Cass County, 7,541 in Greene County, 7,180 in Platte County and 6,872 in Lincoln County. The population gain in those eight counties totaled 103,800 about two-thirds of Missouri’s total population increase from 2000-2004.
Components of Population Change 2000-2004
From 2000-2004 there were 88,800 more babies born in Missouri than the number of people who died. That natural increase accounted for 56 percent of Missouri population growth during the past four years. During the same four years there were 69,128 more people who moved into Missouri from other places than the number who moved away. That net in-migration from 2000-2004 accounted for 44 percent of Missouri’s 2000-2004 population growth.
| Map 2 click map for larger version 
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As indicated on Map 2, there are 43 counties in which there have been more deaths than births between 2000 and 2004. Those counties are all relatively small population rural counties but are scattered across the four regions of the state. The counties having more deaths than births are also counties which had a relatively high proportion of population age 65 and over according to the 2003 population estimates. Most of the counties having more births than deaths are larger population and/or are located in metropolitan suburbs.
| Map 3 click map for larger version 
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Map 3 shows there were 43 counties in which more people moved away from the county than moved in from 2000-2004. It also shows the 72 counties in which more people moved in than moved away.
Although a majority of the counties having a net out-migration were relatively small population rural counties scattered across the state, there were some significant exceptions. For example the greatest out-migration from 2000-2004 occurred in St. Louis County with a net out-migration of 18,552, followed by Jackson County with 13,536 and St. Louis City with 10,522. After those three there was a significant drop to Buchanan County with an out-migration of 1,902. There were seven counties with an out-migration of between 500 and 1,000 but there were very different reasons, depending on the county. For example, there were three counties in the Bootheel having a high out-migration of African Americans – Pemiscot with 983, New Madrid with 872, and Dunklin with 725. There were also two college counties in which declining student enrollment resulted in a county net out-migration. The two were Adair County with an out-migration of 512 and Nodaway County with an out-migration of 299. It is demographically significant that while Cole County (Jefferson City) had 1,380 more births than deaths from 2000-2004 there was an out-migration of 781 from the county in that same period. A likely explanation is that while Jefferson City is in Cole County it is literally on the border of three growing counties – Boone, Callaway and Osage. Each of those counties is attracting in-migrants.
If the 2000-2004 rates of population increase continue at the same rate to the next census in 2010, Missouri’s population will likely reach a population of nearly 6.0 million – an increase of 7.0 percent during the decade. That will be somewhat less than the 9.3 percent population increase during the 1990s.
This file last modified Friday May 08, 2009, 14:32:11
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240 Heinkel Building, Columbia, MO 65211