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Migration and Change in County Population 1990-2000 and 2000-2003
Table 2 shows net migration in Missouri counties both for 1990-2000 and for 2000-2003. Migration data are included in the table for both the 1990-2000 period and for the 2000-2003 period because there were many significant changes in migration among the various counties. For example, total state in-migration during the 1990s was more than 258,000 while net in-migration from 2000-2003 was only 43,000. If that same rate were to continue throughout the remainder of the 2000-2010 decade net in-migration for that decade would only be about 141,000 - only about 55 percent of the in-migration of the 1990s.

• Out-migration counties: From 1990-2000 there were 99 of Missouri's 115 counties that had more people move into the county than move away. There was, however, a significant change from 2000-2003. As indicated on Map 3, there were 45 counties that had more people move away than move in from 2000-2003. The map shows that 25 of the 45 counties that had a net out-migration were north of the Missouri River. Twenty-two of those counties are linked together across the top three tiers of counties in rural north Missouri.
• There was another cluster of 10 adjacent counties in the southeast region that had more people move away from the county than move in from 2000-2003. In general, the rate of out-migration from those counties from 2000-2003 is significantly greater than what occurred during the 1990s. For example, Wayne County had 1,934 more people move in that move away during the 1990s but had a net out-migration of 120 from 2000-2003. Similarly, Butler County had a net in-migration of 2,095 during the 1990s but an out-migration of 97 since 2000.
• There were also seven counties in Central Missouri that had in-migration from 1990-2000 but out-migration from 2000-2003. Those counties include Audrain, Howard, Maries, Montgomery, Osage, Pettis and Saline. Those seven counties had 7,762 more people move in than move away during the 1990s but, they combined for a net out-migration of 2,172 from 2000-2003.
• Three of the remaining seven counties having an out-migration from 2000-2003 were core metropolitan counties (Jackson, St. Louis and St. Louis City) that also had out-migration from 1990-2000.
• In-migration Counties: Although there were 70 counties that had a net in-migration from 2000-2003, only 24 of those counties had a net increase of more than 1,000 in-migrants during those three years. As indicated on Map 3, 12 of those counties are in the St. Louis (6), Kansas City (4), and Springfield (3) metropolitan areas. Of the remaining large in-migration counties two (Boone and Callaway) are in Central Missouri, five are in the Lake of Ozarks-Rolla area and four are in the Branson-Joplin area of Southwest Missouri.
• It is significant that the in-migration of six counties (St. Charles, Christian, Clay, Cass, Jefferson and Lincoln) totaled a net of 46,582 from 2000-2003 that is greater than the 43,115 net in-migration for the entire state during those three years. The greatest net in-migration from 2000-2003 was in St. Charles County, 19,649, that is 46 percent of the state total.
• Migration within metro areas: It is misleading to view in-migration to the metro suburbs as population gain. That migration is largely a relocation of population within the metro area. In the St. Louis Metro Area from 2000-2003, St. Louis County had a net out-migration of 12,052 and St. Louis City had an out-migration of -20,154 - a net loss of 32,206. On the other hand, the peripheral counties of the St. Louis Metro Area had a net-in-migration from 2000-2003 as follows: St. Charles County (19,949), Jefferson County (5,169), Lincoln County (4,454), Franklin County (1,849) and Warren County (1,944). The in-migration of those five metro counties surrounding St. Louis County and St. Louis City was 33,365, only 1,100 greater than the out-migration loss of the core counties.
• The pattern of migration within the Kansas City Metro Area is less balanced within the metro area. The core county of the KCMSA is Jackson that had a net out-migration of 8,539 from 2000-2003. In contrast, the 2000-2003 in-migration to other Kansas City Metro Counties was as follows: Cass (+5,522), Clay (+5,845), Clinton (1,008), Lafayette (-40), Platte (3,802) and Ray (374). The total for those KC Metro peripheral counties was a net in-migration of 16,511 which, after subtracting the out-migration of Jackson County leaves a net-in-migration to the Missouri side of the KC Metro Area of 7,972.

Components of Change in Regional Population 2000-2003

Following are tables showing components of population change between 2000 and 2003 for various Missouri multi-county regions. In this section there are tables showing the components of 2000-2003 population change among four different sets of regions: the eight University of Missouri Extension Regions, the 13 Department of Economic Development Regions, the 10 Missouri Department of Transportation Districts and the 19 Regional Planning Commission/Council of Government Regions.

OSEDA Regional Grouping of Counties Many demographic factors vary by region within the state of Missouri. For the convenience of our user community, OSEDA prepares tables using three different regional groupings of counties: Extension, Economic Development and Transportation. For each of these groupings, one table summarizes the indicators by regional total and a second table shows values for each county grouped by region. Users may select the county grouping most helpful for their application and understanding.

Components of 2000-2003 Population Change by UM Extension Regions

Table 3 shows wide variation among the eight MU Extension Regions in the relative contribution of natural increase/decrease and migration to the amount of population change from 2000-2003.

• Of the eight Extension Regions the two with the largest population are East Central (St. Louis) and West Central (Kansas City). It is significant that in the East Central Region 27,310 of the 30,892 population increase (88 percent) from 2000-2003 was a result of natural increase. That leaves only 3,582 of the increase occurring as a result of in-migration. Population increase in the West Central Region from 2000-2003 was about the same as East Central (30,564) and, like East Central, most of the growth (75 percent) was natural increase. It is significant that 76 percent of the net natural increase in Missouri population from 2000-2003 occurred in the East Central and West Central Regions.
• In comparison, it is also significant that 68 percent of Missouri's 43,115 in-migration from 2000-2003 occurred in two of the eight extension regions - 19,462 in the Southwest Region - that includes Springfield, Branson and Joplin - and 10,014 in the South Central Region. As indicated in Table 2, all but three of the 32 counties in those regions had more people move in than move away from 2000-2003.
• Of the remaining four Extension Regions only the Central Region had a balance of natural increase and migration growth from 2000-2003.
• Each of the three remaining Extension Regions (Northeast, Northwest and Southeast) had net out-migration from 2000-2003 and each had quite small natural increase. As indicated in Table 4 most of the counties in each of those regions had a net out-migration from 2000-2003. Out-migration occurred in 11 of the 16 counties in the Northeast Region, 10 of the 15 counties in the Northwest Region and nine of the 16 counties in Southeast.

Components of 2000-2003 Population Change By Department of Economic Development Regions

Table 5 shows that 57,379 of Missouri's 64,686 net natural increase in population (89 percent) from 2000-2003 occurred in only four of the 13 DED Regions. That is not especially surprising because those four regions, St. Louis MSA, Kansas City MSA, Springfield-Branson and Central have, in order, the largest total population of the 13 DED regions.

However, Table 5 also shows that six of the 13 DED Regions had a combined in-migration of 42,652 from 2000-2003 - 99 percent of Missouri's 43,115 net in-migration. Among those six regions the greatest in-migration was in the Springfield-Branson Region with 14,934 (35 percent of state total) followed by Lake Ozark-Rolla with 8,528 (20 percent of state total), Kansas City MSA with 7,972 (18 percent of state total), the Central Region with 4,063 (9 percent of state total), the Southwest Region with 3,985 (9 percent of state total) and Lower East Central-Cape with 3,170 (7 percent of state total).

Some additional observations about components of population change among the DED regions include:

• Table 6 shows that four of the 13 DED Regions (Bootheel, North Central, Northeast and Northwest) had a net out-migration from 2000-2003. This is not surprising because they are the four regions in which agriculture accounts for the largest proportion of land use. In the North Central Region, seven of the eight counties had net out-migration from 2000-2003.
• Although the St. Louis MSA had the greatest natural increase (27,021) among the 13 DED regions, that region had a net in-migration of only 859 - 3.1 percent of the St. Louis MSA population gain from 2000-2003. That occurs because both St. Louis County and St. Louis City have high rates of out-migration to other counties within the St. Louis MSA. That pattern has been occurring for at least the past 2-3 decades.

Components of 2000-2003 Population Change By Missouri Department of Transportation Districts

Table 7 shows that 48,036 of Missouri's 64,686 net natural population increase (74 percent) from 2000-2003 occurred in only two of the MODOT Districts. That increase is not surprising because those two districts, St. Louis and Kansas City, are Missouri's two most heavily populated. However, in the St. Louis District the natural increase of 25,819 was about 5,600 greater than the District's total 2000-2003 population increase of 20,607. That was because the St. Louis District, as configured by MODOT, had a net out-migration of 5,539 that significantly offset the natural increase of 25,800, leaving a net population increase of only 20,607 for the district.

This affect occurred because the MODOT St. Louis District includes only five counties, two of which, St. Louis County and St. Louis City, had out-migration of 32,206 from 2000 to 2003. As the data in Table 8 show, there were 26,667 people who migrated into St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin counties between 2000 and 2003. The difference between those numbers is the 5,539 net out-migration of the St. Louis MODOT District between 2000 and 2003. Other persons relocating from St. Louis City and County apparently relocated to counties further from the core of St Louis such as Lincoln and Warren Counties that are in the MODOT Hannibal District. The presence of those counties in the Hannibal District is a major reason why, as indicated in Table 8, the Hannibal District had the 5th largest in-migration of the 10 MODOT Districts between 2000-2003.

Some additional observations about components of population change among the MODOT Districts from 2000-2003 include:

• All but one of the 10 Districts (North Central/Macon was the exception) had a natural increase in population from 2000-2003. Other than the St. Louis and Kansas City Districts, which had natural increases of 2.0 and 1.4 percent respectively, the other districts with the greatest natural increase were, in order, the Central and Southwest Districts each of which had a natural increase of 1.0 percent and the Hannibal and Springfield Districts which each had natural increases of 0.9 percent. Natural increases in population were 0.5 percent or less in the South Central/Willow Springs, Southeast/Sikeston and Northwest/St. Joseph Districts.
• The MODOT Districts with the greatest in-migration of population from 2000-2003 were the Springfield District with an increase of 16,205, the Kansas City District with a net increase of 8,207, the Central District with a net increase of 7,852 the South Central District with a net increase of 7,087 and the Hannibal District with a net increase of 5,511. Those Districts together had a net in-migration of 44,862 that is about 1,700 greater than the net in-migration of Missouri (43,115) from 2000-2003. That was the case because of three districts that experienced net out-migration during those years.
• There were three of the 10 MODOT Districts that had a net out-migration of population from 2000-2003. The largest number was in the St. Louis District as discussed about with -5,539, followed by the North Central/Macon District with -1,968 and the Northwest District with a net out-migration of -751. In the Macon District nine of the 14 District counties and in the St. Joseph District seven of the 12 counties had a net out-migration.

Components of 2000-2003 Population Change By Missouri Regional Planning Commission

Table 9 shows that 46,822 of Missouri's 64,686 net natural population increase (72 percent) from 2000-2003 occurred in only two of the 19 Regional Planning Commission Areas. That increase is not surprising because those two RPCs, East-West Gateway Coordinating Council (St. Louis) and the Mid-America Regional Planning Commission (Kansas City), are Missouri's two most heavily populated. However, in the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council Area the natural increase of 25,819 was about 5,600 greater than the District's total 2000-2003 population increase of 20,280. That was because the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council Area includes St. Louis City as well as St. Louis, Jefferson, St. Charles and Franklin Counties as shown on Table 10.

In the East -West Gateway Area between 2000 and 2003 St. Louis County had a net out-migration of -20,154 and St. Louis City had a net out-migration of -12,052 for a combined total of -32,206 in those three years. However, many of those who moved from St. Louis City and County between 2000-2003 relocated to one of the other three counties in the Coordinating Council Area. Included was a net in-migration of 19,649 to St. Charles County, 5,169 to Jefferson County and 1,849 to Franklin County for a total of 26,667 who moved to other adjoining counties. However, that leaves the five county Coordinating Council Area with a net out-migration of -5,539 which, when subtracted from the 25,819 natural increase, left the Coordinating Council Area with a net population increase of 20,607.

The Mid-America RPC (which includes Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte and Ray Counties) had a population increase of 28,007 from 2000-2003. However, the components of population change were somewhat different in the Mid-America RPC than in the East-West Coordinating Council Area. In the Mid-America Area there was a natural increase of 21,003. However, like St. Louis County, Jackson County had a net out-migration of -8,539 from 2000-2003. Many of those leaving Jackson County moved to one of the other four counties comprising the Mid-America RPC Area. Together Cass, Clay, Platte and Ray had a net in-migration of 15,543, but when subtracting the out-migration from Jackson County left the Mid-America Area with a net in-migration of 7,004 producing the 28,007 increase for the Area from 2000-2003.

Additional observations about components of population change among the Regional Planning Commission Areas from 2000-2003 include the following:

• ·Aside from the East-West Coordinating Council and the Mid-America Regional Planning Commission that had the greatest rate of natural increases in population from 2000-2003, there were several additional RPC Areas that had significant rates of natural increase. Aside from the Mid-America RPC with a natural increase of 2.1 percent there were three RPCs that each had a natural increase of 1.6 percent - the three were the Boonslick RPC (Lincoln, Montgomery and Warren Counties), the Mid-Missouri RPC (Boone, Callaway, Cole, Cooper, Howard and Moniteau Counties) and the Harry S Truman Coordinating Council (Barton, Jasper, McDonald and Newton Counties). Following those, the Pioneer Trails RPC (Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and Saline Counties) had a natural increase of 1.1 percent and Lake of the Ozarks Council of Local Governments (Camden, Laclede, Miller, Morgan and Pulaski Counties) and the Southwest Missouri Council of Governments (Barry, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Lawrence, Polk, Stone, Taney and Webster Counties) each had a natural increase of 0.9 percent.
• There were four RPC areas that had a natural decrease in population from 2000-2003 and two additional areas that had no increase. As shown in Table 10 the RPC areas with more deaths than births included the Green Hills RPC (11 counties in the north central area), the Kaysinger Basin RPC (Bates, Benton, Cedar, Henry, Hickory, St. Clair and Vernon Counties), the NWMO Regional Council of Governments (Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway and Worth Counties) and the South Central Ozarks Council of Governments (Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Shannon, Texas and Wright Counties). The two regions having virtually no natural increase in population were the Northeast Missouri RPC (Adair, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Schuyler, and Scotland Counties) and the Ozark Foothills RPC (Butler, Carter, Reynolds, Ripley, and Wayne Counties).

In general, the rate of in-migration into all parts of Missouri has slowed since the middle 1990s. Beginning from 1998 the rate of in-migration leveled off and has remained about the same for the past five years. Following are some observations about the extent of net in-migration into each of the 19 RPC areas from 2000-2003. As shown in Table 9:

• There were four RPCs that had a net in-migration of more than 6,200 from 2000-2003. The greatest in-migration occurred in the Southwest Missouri Council of Governments Region with a net in-migration of 16,372, followed by the Mid-America RPC with a net in-migration of 7,004, the Boonslick RPC with a net in-migration of 6,327 and the Lake of the Ozarks Council of Local Governments with a net in-migration of 6,237. Together those four RPCs had a net in-migration of 35,940 that is 83 percent of the 43,115 net in-migration in Missouri from 2000-2003.
• There were nine RPC's that had a net out-migration from 2000-2003. The largest net out-migration was, as described above, the significant out-migration from St. Louis City and St. Louis County which caused the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council Area to have a net out-migration of 5,539. However, it is clear that much of the out-migration from St. Louis City and County was headed to residence in adjoining suburban counties. After East-West Gateway the next largest out-migration was from the Bootheel RPC with 1,065. After those RPCs none of the remaining seven RPCs having a net out-migration was the migration loss greater than 690. Of those seven RPCs six are located in the northern half of the state.

Detailed Tables of Components of Population Change
The following links provide detailed tables of Components in Population Change in Missouri, 1990-2000 and 2000-2003. They are available in both HTML and Adobe Acrobat(PDF) formats. All Missouri Counties
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By County with State Totals	HTML	PDF
Net Migration in Missouri, 2000-2003 and 1990-2000 By County With State Totals	HTML	PDF
Regional Tables
UO/E Regions
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By UM Extension Region	HTML	PDF
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By County Within UM Extension Region	HTML	PDF
DED Regions
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By DED Region	HTML	PDF
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By County Within DED Region	HTML	PDF
MoDOT Regions
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By DOT District	HTML	PDF
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By County Within DOT District	HTML	PDF
RPC Regions
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By RPC	HTML	PDF
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 2000-2003 - By County Within RPC	HTML	PDF