Missouri Components of Population Change 1990-2000: In-Migration Turn-around
Net migration was the big story of Missouri population change in the 1990s. During the 1980s 65,000 more people moved away from Missouri than moved in. From 1990 to 2000 there was a net IN-migration of 259,000 (that many more people moved to Missouri than moved away).
Population change in an area reflects both the amount of natural increase or decrease (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration (the net difference between the in and out flows of people). A historical comparison of Missouri's components of population change since 1930 is provided in Chart 1.
Chart 1
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Recently released birth and death statistics allow us to calculate how much net migration and natural increase each contributed to Missouri's 478,000 population increase from 1990 to 2000 as reported by the Census Bureau.
Net migration accounted for the majority (54 percent or a net migration rate of 5.1) of Missouri's 9.3 percent growth during the 1990's. More than a quarter million more people (258,585) moved into the state than moved out.
Natural increase accounted for 46 percent of Missouri's 478,673 population gain during the 1990s--219, 553 more births than deaths, a natural increase rate of 4.3. The 1990s natural increase in Missouri's population was about 46,000 less than the natural increase of the 1980s. This slowing of natural increase reflects a number of factors including Missouri's relatively older population (a higher death rate) and the maturing of the baby boom generation (smaller number of babies born).
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Map 3 click map for larger version 
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Map 2 displays net migration between 1990 and 2000 as a percent of 1990 population revealing relative patterns of net migration. Map 3 displays natural increase between 1990 and 2000 as a percent of 1990 population illustrating the relative net differences between births and deaths.
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Map 5 click map for larger version 
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Map 4 displays the population increase attributable to natural increase, and Map 5 displays the population increase attributable to net migration.
State-wide Patterns of Population Change
During the 1990s, 16 Missouri counties had negative net migration and 99 had positive net migration. Map 5 shows in red the 16 Missouri counties that had negative net migration and in blue the 99 counties that had positive net migration.
The largest migration losses occurred in the central city counties of the St. Louis and Kansas City Metropolitan Areas. In St. Louis City a 16,841 gain in natural increase was over shadowed by a 65,337 net out-migration resulting in a population decline of 48,496 persons. More people moved out of St. Louis County (21,312) and Jackson County (14,433) than moved in during the 1990s. However, births exceeded deaths by a wide margin in both counties contributing to modest overall population gains despite the sizable amount of out-migration.
Five counties in Missouri had both negative natural increase and negative net migration--all are small population, predominantly agricultural counties--Atchison, Holt, Carroll, Chariton and Clark.
Two of the net out-migration counties include special populations such as students (Adair County) and the military (Pulaski County). One South Central County--Reynolds--recorded an ever so slight net out-migration of 15 persons.
The remaining five counties with negative net migration are traditional "Bootheel" counties--Pemiscot, Scott, Mississippi, New Madrid and Dunklin. In the Bootheel a relatively strong natural increase (many births) generally did not keep pace with continuing out-migration. Although in Mississippi, New Madrid and Pemiscot counties there were many more births than deaths, the natural increases were not sufficient to keep pace with the net outflow of people; so overall county population declines ranged from 5.6 to 8.6 percent. In Scott County a natural increase of 1,802 outpaced a net out-migration of 756. In Dunklin County a small natural increase and a smaller net out migration resulted in a very slight population gain. Interestingly, Stoddard County differed from the other five traditional Bootheel neighbors and recorded a net in-migration of 1,400 people--similar to its northwestern neighbor Wayne County--home to Lake Wappapello.
The nearly 100 Missouri counties with net in-migration reflect many factors, of which four seem most prominent (see Maps 2and 5). First, there was continued rapid growth in the suburban and urban fringes of the St. Louis and Kansas City Metropolitan Areas. While St. Louis City and St. Louis County had a combined total net out-migration of 86,649, St. Charles had 45,743 net in-migrants and each of the remaining four St. Louis metro counties had modest rates of in-migration. Nevertheless when the migration for the Missouri side of Metro St. Louis is combined there was a net out-migration of 7,323 persons. Similarly in Kansas City, while Jackson County had an out-migration of 14,433, the rest of the Missouri Metro Kansas City counties had a combined net in-migration of 48,155 resulting in a net in-migration for the KC Metro Area of 33,722.
Second, there was continued suburban and fringe growth in and around the state's smaller metropolitan areas--Columbia, Joplin, St. Joseph, and, especially, Springfield. Among the smaller metropolitan areas, Buchanan County (St. Joseph) was the only one with less than a 10 percent increase in net migration between 1990 and 2000. While during the 1980s Buchanan County lost 7,576 persons through net migration, during the 1990s the county gained 1,068 persons through net migration. All the non-metro counties surrounding Buchanan County had greater than 10 percent increases in net migration between 1990 and 2000. Among the three counties in the Springfield metropolitan area, Greene County (Springfield) posted an 11 percent increase in net migration. Christian County had the state's highest percent increase in net migration--over 57 percent between 1990 and 2000. The percent increase in net migration in Webster County over the decade was 23.6 percent.
Third, there was very rapid net in-migration around Lake of the Ozarks, Truman Reservoir and particularly the Branson area south of Springfield. For example, Taney and Stone counties recorded net in-migration of 53 and 48 percent, respectively. Camden (35 percent), Benton (29.9 percent) and Hickory (31 percent) counties all had very strong net in-migrations. With the aging of the baby boom into active retirement years the demographic opportunities for continued expansion in these areas is considerable. In particular, the Springfield-Branson Region benefited from multiple population attractions (growing suburbs, lakes, retirement and entertainment centers). During the 1990s, together the seven counties in the region added net migration of 77,635 to a natural increase of 15,643 to post a population increase of 93,278--27.2 percent.
Finally, many rural counties gained in-migrants--often shifting a long-standing pattern of out-migration. The circumstances of rural in-migration are diverse and sometimes very particular such as the impact of agricultural processing plants in McDonald and Sullivan counties or the location of new prisons in Pike, Audrain and Moniteau counties. On the other hand, growth in many rural counties may reflect a general attraction to rural life-styles and the emergence of local and regional service and trade centers that support such "rural neighborhoods."
Regional Patterns of Population Change
Regional differences in the patterns of population change reflect Missouri's considerable population diversity. OSEDA provides analysis of county-level regions of Missouri specific to the administrative and analytical boundaries set by our partners at DED, MODoT, and University Outreach & Extension. Please use the following links to view analysis of the components of change for each partner region in Missouri.
Detailed Tables of Population Change
| The following links provide detailed tables of Components of population change. They are available in both HTML and Adobe Acrobat (PDF) formats. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
State-wide Tables
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By County With State Totals |
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Regional Tables
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UO/E Regions
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By UM Extension Region
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By County Within UM Extension Region
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DED Regions
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By DED Region
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By County Within DED Region
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MoDOT Regions |
Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By DOT District
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Missouri Population and Components of Change, 1990-2000 By County Within DOT District
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This file last modified Thursday May 07, 2009, 16:03:46
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