Change in the Population of Missouri Young Adults, age 18-24 and 25-34, 1990-2000
Map 1 shows the population of Missouri 18-24 year olds increased by 3.6 percent from 1990 to 2000. However, as shown in Map 2, the 25-34 year old population declined by 13.3 percent. But that decline is an anomaly.
| Map 1 click map for larger version 
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Map 2 click map for larger version 
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Change in the size of the 25-34-age cohort during the 1990s is directly linked to the advancing age of the baby boom generation. The 1980 population of the Missouri 25-34 age cohort was 752,737. The population of that cohort increased to 852,042 by 1990 (an increase of 13.2 percent). That unusual rate of growth was primarily attributable to the baby boom generation reaching the 25-34 age group during the 1980s. Predictably the atypically large population of the 25-34 cohort in 1990 declined to 738,733 by 2000 as most of the 25-34 year olds of 1990 advanced to the 35-44-age cohort by 2000. Thus it was the growth in the 25-34 population during the 1980s that was unusual. The 2000 population in that cohort (738,733) returned to nearly the same number as 1980 (752,737).
Advancing years of the baby boom generation also had an influence on change in the population of the 18-24-age cohort. Missouri’s 18-24 population in 1980 was 636,033, which declined to 517,191 in 1990 - a decline of 18.7 percent. By 1990 the 18-24-age cohort had advanced to the 25-34-age range, leaving behind a much smaller 18-24 population. During the 1990s the 18-24 population increased from 517, 191 to 535,978 - a gain of 3.6 percent.
Some of the Effects of Population Change among Young Adults
Decline in the 18-24 age cohort beginning in the 1980s was reflected in the enrollment of Missouri public two and four-year colleges and universities. First time freshman enrollment in all Missouri public colleges and universities declined by 21 percent from 1981 to 1996. The major reason for the enrollment decline was that the 18-24 age cohort declined by 18.7 percent from 1980 to the mid 1990s. There has however been some recovery in first time enrollment during the past five years as the 18-24 age group gained in size from the mid 1990s to 2000.
The shrinking size of the 18-24-age cohort during the 1980s and first part of the 1990s also had an effect on the economy, especially during the 1990’s. Throughout the first half of the 1990s the rate of Missouri employment growth far exceeded the rate of population growth. There were more jobs than there were people. That is where the small size of entry level workers (age 18-24) contributed to labor shortages in many parts of the state during the last half of the 1990s. There is also evidence that low unemployment rates during the 1990s contributed to relatively large high school dropout rates in many parts of the state. Students left school to join the labor force. A part of the labor shortage during much of the 1990s was also linked with high levels of immigration in several parts of the state. That will be discussed further in the section of the profiles reporting on migration and growth of the Missouri Hispanic population.
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OSEDA Regional Grouping of Counties Many demographic factors vary by region within the state of Missouri. For the convenience of our user community, OSEDA prepares tables using three different regional groupings of counties: Extension, Economic Development and Transportation. For each of these groupings, one table summarizes the indicators by regional total and a second table shows values for each county grouped by region. Users may select the county grouping most helpful for their application and understanding. |
Local and Regional Change in Population of the 18-24 Age Cohort 1990-2000
As shown on Map 1 and Table 1 there was wide variation among the counties in the extent of change in 18-24 population among the counties during the 1990s. There were 31 counties in which the size of the 18-24 cohort declined. While many of those counties are located in predominantly agricultural north and southeast parts of the state, there were also three counties in both the St. Louis and the Kansas City metro areas that lost 18-24 population.
There were also 19 counties in which the 18-24-age cohort increased by more than 20 percent during the 1990s. Inspection of Map 1 shows that those counties are rather widely scattered throughout the state although there is a concentration of large growth counties in the southwest corner of the state. There are two contributing factors to that significant growth. Several of the counties had a large immigration of Hispanic workers, which, as described in the regional profile section on Hispanic population, included a disproportionately large number of young adults. The Hispanic population is concentrated in counties having large-scale poultry processing plants. The other factor is the presence of the Branson entertainment complex that has attracted significant numbers of young adult workers during the 1990s.
As shown in Table 2 the two regions in southwest Missouri - Springfield-Branson and Southwest had the greatest increases in 18-24 population, with 15.7 and 19.0 percent increases respectively. Those two regions accounted for 60 percent of Missouri’s total 1990-2000 growth in 18-24 population.
Although Table 2 reports a decline of the 18-24-age cohort in the St. Louis MSA of 4,344, that statistic is misleading. The 18-24-age cohort declined in St. Louis City by 4,609 and by 5,651 in St. Louis County - a combined loss of 10,260. However those losses were partially offset by an increase of 4,051 in St. Charles County. Other counties in the metro area increased by modest amounts ranging from 300-800.
A somewhat similar pattern of change occurred in the Kansas City MSA although the region had a net increase of 423 18-24 year olds. In the Kansas City MSA Jackson County (Kansas City) declined by 1,604 and Lafayette, a peripheral suburban county, declined by 199. Clay, Cass and Platte Counties each had increases of more than 500 in this age cohort.
Aside from the large growth in the 18-24 cohort in Southwest Missouri and the decline of that cohort in Kansas City and St. Louis most of the remaining regions had increases in the range of three percent to eight percent.
Local and Regional Change in Population of the 25-34 Age Cohort - 1990-2000
With the exception of the Springfield-Branson Region the remaining 12 regions, as indicated in Table 3 had a net decline of the 25-34 age cohort during the 1990s. Nine of the 13 regions had a decline of greater than ten percent. The greatest decline occurred in the St. Louis MSA (-20.4 percent) followed by the three regions in rural north Missouri and the Bootheel Region in the southeast.
Statewide only 15 of the 115 counties had an increase in size of the 25-34 age cohort during the 1990s. The greatest county increases occurred in the Springfield-Branson Region with 51.2 percent growth in Taney County (Branson), 45.3 percent in Christian and 27.4 percent in Stone County. The 25-34-age cohort declined by 2.2 percent in Greene County (Springfield). (Table 2)
Another factor related to significant increases in size of the 25-34 age cohort was Hispanic immigration in Sullivan, McDonald, and Moniteau Counties - each having an increase of about 14 percent.
| Detailed Tables of Population Change | ||
The following links provide detailed tables of Young Adult Population in Missouri, 1990-2000. They are available in both HTML and Adobe Acrobat (PDF) formats. All Missouri Counties |
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| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By County with State Totals | HTML | |
| Regional Tables | ||
| UO/E Regions | ||
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By UM Extension Region | HTML | |
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By County Within UM Extension Region | HTML | |
| DED Regions | ||
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By DED Region | HTML | |
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By County Within DED Region | HTML | |
| MoDOT Regions | ||
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By DOT District | HTML | |
| Missouri Population Age 18 to 24 Years and Age 25 to 34 Years, 1990-2000 - By County Within DOT District | HTML | |
This file last modified Thursday May 07, 2009, 16:03:46
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