Change in Population of Missouri Pre-School and School Age Children and Youth 1990-2000
The population of Missouri school age children and youth (age 5-17) increased from 945,582 in 1990 to 1,057,794 in 2000 - an increase of 112,212. That translates into an 11.9 percent growth rate for the 5-17 age cohort, well above the 9.3 percent growth for the total population. The growth rate of this cohort in the 1990s is a significant turn around from the 6.2 percent decline in that age cohort during the 1980s. The recent dramatic change of school age population helps explain the shortage of classrooms in many school districts around the state.
However, the patterns of change in school age population have gone down and then back up during the past 20 years. In 1980 there were 1,008,339 children and youth age 5-17. That number dropped to 945,582 in 1990 but then increased 1,057,794 in 2000. The change from 1990 to 2000 was significant, but the change from 1980 to 2000 was less impressive.
Change in the pre-school population (age 0-5) was much different. The pre-school population increased from 369,244 in 1990 to 369,898 in 2000, an increase of only 654 (0.2 percent). That is well below the 4.2 percent increase of this age cohort during the 1980s.
The difference in the rate of change in the number of school age children and youth compared with the number of pre-school children is directly associated with the advancing age of the baby boom generation. The baby boom generation reached the 35-54 age group by 2000. Details of change in the 35-54 age cohort are reported in another section of this part of regional profile coverage of change by age.
Implications for School Enrollment and Demand for Child Care Services
The children of especially the younger half of the baby boom cohort (age 35-44) are most likely to be those in the 5-17 age range. It is because of the unusually large size of the parent population of school age children and youth that their numbers increased significantly during the 1990s. Many school districts found it necessary to add classrooms or school buildings to accommodate the increased elementary and secondary enrollments.
Important with regard to the very small 1990 to 2000 increase in the number of pre-school children is what happened to the size of the potential parent cohort. Generally most of the very large baby boom cohort moved past the most probable child bearing years. During the same time the size of the 25-34 age cohort declined by 13 percent from 1990 to 2000 and the size of the 18-24 age cohort increased by only 3.6 percent (Graph 1). Since most births occur to parents in the 18-34 age range the decline in their numbers helps explain the very small increase in the pre-school population from 1990 to 2000.
Graph 1
The discussion above pertains to changes in the children and youth population in Missouri but there are very great differences in the extent and rate of change among the different counties and regions. Data and maps specific to counties and regions are reported and discussed in the tables below:
Local and Regional Change in Population of School Age Children and Youth 1990-2000
| Map 1 click map for larger version 
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As is evident from Map 1 the 11.9 percent 1990-2000 statewide increase in population of children and youth age 5-17 varies greatly from one part of the state to another. Map 1 and Table 1 report that the population age 5-17 declined from 1990 to 2000 in 27 counties. Most of those counties are in rural north Missouri and rural southeast Missouri. Both those regions experienced significant losses of total population during the 1980s and to some extent during the 1990s.
At the other extreme there were 24 counties in which the 5-17 age population increased by 20 percent or more. For the most part these are counties that experienced the greatest gain in total population. In several of those counties the growth in total population and children and youth as well are attributable to distinctive patterns of migration. That is particularly true in the Branson area and several counties that have large-scale meat processing enterprises. That effect is reported and discussed in greater detail in the part of the regional profiles that focus on changes in the Hispanic population.
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OSEDA Regional Grouping of Counties Many demographic factors vary by region within the state of Missouri. For the convenience of our user community, OSEDA prepares tables using three different regional groupings of counties: Extension, Economic Development and Transportation. For each of these groupings, one table summarizes the indicators by regional total and a second table shows values for each county grouped by region. Users may select the county grouping most helpful for their application and understanding. |
Tables 2 and 3 report changes in the 5-17 age group of the population for each of the state’s regions. Table 2 reports that the greatest increases in 5-17 population occurred in the St. Louis MSA (40,703), the Kansas City MSA (24,534) and the Springfield-Branson region (16,079). Those three regions generated 72 percent (81,316 of 112,212) of the state’s increase in 5-17 population although interestingly they only included 63.6 percent of the state’s 5-17 population. A majority of the school age children are in those three regions and they have increased more rapidly. It is clear that both the number and growth of school age children is heavily concentrated in suburban counties.
Table 2 also shows that three regions experienced net decline of 5-17 year old population during the 1990s. The greatest decline occurred in the Bootheel region whose 5-17 age cohort was smaller by 1,772 in 2000 than 1990 - a decline of 3.9 percent. The North Central Region had a modest decline of 159 and the Northeast Region lost but 1.
Local and Regional Change in Population of Pre-School Age Children 1990-2000
| Map 2 click map for larger version 
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As is evident from Map 2 increases in the size of the 0-5 age cohort occurred in counties included in all regions of the state.
There are 28 counties in which the size of the 0-5 age cohort increased by more than 15 percent during the 1990s. However, seventeen of those 28 are contiguous counties confined to the southwest corner of the state. General economic growth as well as dramatic employment growth in some region counties has combined to attract substantial numbers of younger workers and therefore a higher birth rate. There is another smaller concentration of counties in the North Central region having an increase in the size of their 0-5 age cohort of greater than 15 percent. This smaller region has also attracted significant numbers of younger workers employed in the meat production and processing industry.
As shown on Map 2 there are also 35 counties in which the size of the 0-5 age cohort increased but by less than 15 percent. Those counties also are most heavily concentrated in the southwest quadrant of the state.
The 52 counties in which the sizes of the 0-5 age cohort declined are most heavily concentrated in rural north Missouri and the southeast quadrant. These have also been the regions with the least population growth over the past two decades.
It is also of some significance that four of the seven counties in both the St. Louis and Kansas City MSA have had a decline in pre-school children.
Tables 2 and 3 report changes in the 0-5 age cohort among the state’s 13 regions. Table 2 shows that six of the 13 regions had a smaller 0-5 age cohort in 2000 than they did in 1990. As discussed above the Springfield-Branson and Southwest regions had by far the greatest percentage increases with 26.5 and 19.1 percent respectively. The size of the 0-5 cohort in those two regions increased by 9,305 with only two other regions, Kansas City MSA and Central having an increase of as much as 1,000. The size of the cohort declined by 10,260 in the St. Louis MSA. However, that was totally attributable to St. Louis City (a decline of 7,878) and St. Louis County (a decline of 5,471). Only St. Charles County (2,639) among the other MSA counties had an increase of greater than 400.
Implications of Change
Reference to Graph 1 shows that the 18-24 year age cohort only increased by 3.6 percent during the 1990s. As a consequence, enrollments in higher education institutions have remained relatively flat throughout the 1990s and the size of the entry-level work force has not been sufficient to meet the demand. However, as has been discussed there has been a recovery in the size of the 5-17 age cohort during the 1990s increasing by 112,000 from its low of 945,000 in 1990. Those data offer a prospect of larger higher education enrollment and larger work force in the short run.
However, the Census also shows a broad based decline in the population of pre-school children. Some parts of the state have experienced significant growth in the size of the pre-school cohort but for the most part those increases are linked to recent immigration of younger families attracted by local work opportunities. In many parts of the state it can be expected that elementary school enrollments will decline in the short run.
| Detailed Tables of Population Change | ||
The following links provide detailed tables of Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000. They are available in both HTML and Adobe Acrobat(PDF) formats. All Missouri Counties |
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| Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By County with State Totals | HTML | |
| Regional Tables | ||
| UO/E Regions | ||
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Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By UM Extension Region |
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| Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By County Within UM Extension Region | HTML | |
| DED Regions | ||
| Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By DED Region | HTML | |
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Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By County Within DED Region |
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| MoDOT Regions | ||
| Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By DOT District | HTML | |
| Change in Population Under 18 in Missouri, 1990-2000 - By County Within DOT District | HTML | |
This file last modified Thursday May 07, 2009, 16:03:46
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