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Change in Number of Missouri Adults Not Having Graduated From High School 1990-2000

One of the more important gains in Missouri adult educational attainment during the 1990s was the 20.9 percent decline in number of adults not having graduated from high school. The 1990 Census reported 858,368 Missourians not having a high school diploma; by 2000 the number had dropped to 679,095 - a decline of 179,273. Reduction in the number of adults not having graduated from high school occurred in all four Missouri counties by 2000. It is very notable that in 1990 there were 62 Missouri counties in which more than 30 percent of the adult population did not have a high school education; by 2000 that number had dropped to 17 counties.

As a result of these changes the percent of Missouri adults who had not completed high school declined from 26.1 percent to 18.7 percent. By 2000 Missouri ranked 30th nationally in percent of adults having completed high school. Missouri outranked four of its neighboring states (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee) and tied with Illinois in percent of adults having completed high school.

Geographic Distribution Of Change in Number of Adults Not Having Completed High School 1990-2000

Table 1 reports the number of adults not having completed high school in both 1990 and 2000 and the percent change during the decade. Table 1 also reports the percent of adults who had not completed high school in each county for both 1990 and 2000. Map 1 shows the percent change in number of non-high school completers from 1990 to 2000.

As shown on Map 1 the greatest decline in adults not having completed high school was in rural north counties. There were 17 Missouri counties in which the number declined by more than 30 percent. Fifteen of those were rural north counties. The major reason for the great decline in the rural north counties was age of the population. In 1990 most of the adults in rural north counties who had not completed high school were of advanced age. So decline in the number of adults not having completed high school was primarily a result of deaths among the older population. Deaths among older persons were the major source of population decline throughout most of rural north Missouri during the 1990s. Most of the Missouri counties in which deaths exceeded births during the 1990s were rural north counties.

Interestingly the other two counties in which high school non-completers declined by more than 30 percent were St. Louis City and St. Louis County. In 1990 both those counties had a relatively large older population. It is likely that deaths of relatively uneducated older population were a major contributor.

There were also ten rural counties in the Southeast Region in which the number of adults without a high school diploma declined by 23 percent or more. Two of the counties in the region had very small rates of decline in adults without a high school diploma, Carter with a 15.1 percent decline and Wayne with a decline of 6.8 percent. With a small decline in high school non-completers those two counties retain very high percentages of adults without a high school diploma - 40.3 percent in Wayne County (highest in the state) and 33.1 percent in Carter.

Generally the counties with a low rate of decline in adults without a high school diploma are counties that had a relatively small population of non- high school graduates in 1990. They include suburban counties in the Kansas City, St. Louis and Springfield metro areas and counties in the central Missouri region.

Geographic Distribution of Adults Not Having Completed High School 2000

The 2000 Census shows 17 Missouri counties in which more than 30 percent of adults had not completed high school. That is a dramatic decline from 1990 when there were 62 counties in which more than 30 percent did not have a high school diploma. Map 2 shows that all but two of those 17 counties were in the rural Southeast Region. However, despite that improvement, there were still 26 counties in which more than 25 percent but fewer than 30 percent of adults had not completed high school. Map 2 shows that most of those counties are in the rural South Central Region.

The modal category of counties were those in which between 20 and 25 percent of adults had not completed high school by 2000. There are 37 counties in that category. Most of those counties are rural and are concentrated in the Southwest, Central and Northeast Regions. Most of the counties in which between 15 and 20 percent of adults had not completed high school are concentrated in rural North Central and Northwest Regions. Camden County in the Lake of the Ozarks Region and Taney, Stone and Greene Counties in the Springfield-Branson Region also fell in that category.

The 12 counties in which there were fewer than 15 percent of adults not having a high school diploma include four suburban counties in the Kansas City MSA, two in the St. Louis MSA and one in the Springfield MSA. The location of a major college/university was a contributing factor for the low rate in Nodaway (Maryville), Johnson (Warrensburg), and Boone Counties. Cole County (state government) and Pulaski County (Fort Leonard Wood) also had low rates of high school noncompleters.

Following are reports of adults not having completed high school in the University of Missouri Extension Regions, Missouri Department of Transportation Districts and Missouri Department of Economic Development Regions.

OSEDA Regional Grouping of Counties Many demographic factors vary by region within the state of Missouri. For the convenience of our user community, OSEDA prepares tables using three different regional groupings of counties: Extension, Economic Development and Transportation. For each of these groupings, one table summarizes the indicators by regional total and a second table shows values for each county grouped by region. Users may select the county grouping most helpful for their application and understanding.

University of Missouri Extension Regions

There was a decline between 1990 and 2000 in the number of adults not having graduated from high school in all eight Extension Regions. As a result the percent of the adult population having attained at least a high school diploma increased significantly in all 8 regions. The percent of Missouri adults not having a diploma declined from 26.1 percent in 1990 to 18.7 percent in 2000.

In 2000 there were four Extension regions in which the percent of adults not having a high school diploma was lower than the state average: West Central Region (15.5 percent), East Central (17.0 percent), Northwest (18.0 percent) and Central (18.3 percent). In the Southwest and Northeast Regions the percent not having a diploma were only slightly above the state average, 19.4 percent and 21.0 percent respectively.

The two regions having the highest percent of adults not having completed high school in 2000, Southeast (30.7 percent) and South Central (24.8 percent), made the greatest percentage improvement during the 1990s. In 1990 the percent of adults without a diploma was 42.1 percent in the Southeast Region and 35.2 percent in the South Central Region both far above the state average in 1990 as well. Therefore the improvements from 42.1 percent to 30.7 percent in Southeast and from 35.2 percent to 24.8 percent in South Central were the most significant reductions during the 1990s.

Among factors affecting the relative decline in the 1990s in the size of the adult population not having completed high school include:

• The death of older persons not having a high school diploma, an important factor, especially in the Northwest and Northeast Regions
• In migration of adults having higher levels of education - an especially important factor in the South Central and Southwest Regions.
• More vigorous programs encouraging high school completion via GED

However in some regions high school completion rates remain relatively low (below 80 percent) and are therefore contributing to Missouri still ranking relatively low nationally in percent of adults having completed high school.

Missouri Department of Transportation (MODOT) Districts

There was a decline between 1990 and 2000 in the number of adults not having graduated from high school in all ten MODOT Districts. As a result the percent of the adult population having attained at least a high school diploma increased significantly in all ten Districts. The percent of Missouri adults not having a diploma declined from 26.1 percent in 1990 to 18.7 percent in 2000. In 2000 there were four MODOT Districts in which the percent of adults not having a high school diploma was lower than the state average: Kansas City (15.1 percent), St. Louis (16.2 percent), St. Joseph (17.8 percent) and Jefferson City (18.1 percent). The Springfield District with 19.0 percent of adults not having a high school diploma was only slightly above the state average. Among the remaining five Districts the Macon, Hannibal and Joplin Districts were about equal with a rate of 21.1 percent in Macon and Hannibal and Joplin each having a rate of 22.6 percent.

The two Districts having the highest percent of adults in 2000 not having completed high school, Sikeston (29.6 percent) and Willow Springs (27.7 percent), made the greatest percentage improvements during the 1990s. In 1990 the percent of adults without a diploma was 40.8 percent in the Sikeston District and 38.1 percent in the Willow Springs District, both far above the state average in 1990 as well. Therefore the improvements from 40.8 percent to 29.6 percent in the Sikeston District and from 38.1 percent to 27.7 percent in the Willow Springs District were the most significant reductions during the 1990s.

Among factors affecting the relative decline in the 1990s in the size of the adult population not having completed high school include:

• The death of older persons not having a high school diploma, an important factor, especially in the St. Joseph, Hannibal and Macon Districts.
• In migration of adults having higher levels of education - an especially important factor in the Springfield, Joplin and Willow Springs Districts.
• More vigorous programs encouraging high school completion via GED

However in some regions high school completion rates remain relatively low (below 80 percent) and are therefore contributing to Missouri still ranking relatively low nationally in percent of adults having completed high school.

Missouri Department of Economic Development (DED) Regions

There was a decline between 1990 and 2000 in the number of adults not having graduated from high school in all thirteen DED Regions. As a result the percent of the adult population having attained at least a high school diploma increased significantly in all thirteen regions.

The percent of Missouri adults not having a diploma declined from 26.1 percent in 1990 to 18.7 percent in 2000. In 2000 there were five DED Regions in which the percent of adults not having a high school diploma was lower than the state average: Kansas City MSA (15.0 percent), St. Louis MSA (16.3 percent), Springfield-Branson (17.3 percent), Central (17.7 percent) and Northwest (18.2 percent). There were also five Regions ranging from 20.5 to 23.0 in percent of adults not having a high school diploma. Those five regions are generally in north Missouri (North Central and North East) and in the southwest (West Central, Southwest and Lake Ozarks Rolla) Maps 1 and 2 give an overview of the distribution of counties by percent of adults not having a high school diploma.

The three regions having the highest percent of 2000 adults not having completed high school, Bootheel (33.9 percent), South Central (28.3 percent), and Lower East Central -Cape (26.9 percent) generally made the greatest percentage improvements during the 1990s. In 1990 the percent of Bootheel adults not having a diploma was 45.7. That percentage declined to 33.9 percent in 2000. In the South Central Region the percent of adults without a high school diploma declined from 39.9 percent to 28.3 percent during the 1990s and in the Lower East Central-Cape Region there was a decline from 37.3 percent to 26.9 percent. These three regions made the greatest improvement in adults having graduated from high school. However the rates of noncompletion remain high in all three.

Among factors affecting the relative decline in the 1990s in the size of the adult population not having completed high school include:

• The death of older persons not having a high school diploma, an important factor, especially in the North Central, Northeast and Northwest Regions.
• In migration of adults having higher levels of education - an especially important factor in the Springfield-Branson, Lake Ozarks -Rolla, South Central and Southwest Regions.
• · More vigorous programs encouraging high school completion via GED

However in some regions high school completion rates remain relatively low (below 80 percent) and are therefore contributing to Missouri still ranking relatively low nationally in percent of adults having completed high school.

Additional tables are attached which report Missouri Adults Age 25 Years or Older Without a High School Diploma, by State and County 1990-2000 for three different sets of regions: eight University of Missouri Extension regions; 10 Missouri Department of Transportation regions; and 13 Missouri Department of Economic Development regions.

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This file last modified Thursday May 07, 2009, 14:36:54

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