1995 Missouri School District and Poverty Estimates
Highlights
Background
*The Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1994 directed the Department of
Education to consider distributing Title I basic and concentration grants directly to school
districts for the 1999-2000 school year. The Department of Education asked the Census Bureau
to provide the data at a school district level that would make this possible. The allocation is to be
on a school district (local education agency) basis unless the secretaries of the Department of
Education and the Department of Commerce determine that the estimates are
"inappropriate or unreliable." That determination is to be aided by an evaluation of
the available options by the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas of the
National Research Council. Previously, Title I grants were distributed on a county basis with
individual states having responsibility to redistribute the funds from counties to school districts.
This redistribution was done using a variety of techniques that varied by state. Despite
limitations, the panel recommended to the secretaries that the Department of Education use the
school district estimates for FY1999 Title I allocations. Even though the potential errors are
large, the panel does not view them to be "inappropriate or unreliable. The secretaries
of the Department of Education and the Department of Commerce have not yet determined
whether these school district estimates are "appropriate or reliable" and, thus,
whether they will be used for FY1999 Title I funding.
The estimates released
Three estimates are provided for each school district: 1) total population, 2) the number of
school-age children ages 5-17, and 3) the number of related school-age children in families in
poverty. The number of related school-age children in families in poverty in each school district
is provided as a component of the determination of basic Title I grants. The estimate of the total
population of each district is provided by the Census Bureau for use in the small district (less
than 20,000) provision. The figure for school-age children is provided so the proportion of poor
children can be determined. This proportion is required for allocating the concentration grants.
A true poverty "rate" for children cannot be determined from these figures because
the numerator and denominator refer to slightly different universes.
Construction of the estimates
The estimates were created using a "synthetic estimator." The estimate is the
number of poor children as measured in the 1990 census (for school districts defined by 1996
geographic boundaries for the 1995-96 school year) multiplied by the proportional change in
child poverty in the county in which the district is located. The school district estimates were
then
adjusted so that they sum to the county estimates, which were, in turn, controlled to sum to the
state estimates. The county change is computed as the change from the 1990 census to the
Census Bureau's county model estimates for 1995. The county estimation models use
administrative data and data from the 1990 census and the Current Population Survey to estimate
child poverty.
The population figures were created using similar "synthetic estimators." This kink
of estimator can not capture the variation in changes in poverty between school districts within a
county. It would be preferable to use a model with explanatory variables on the school district
level, but variables that are consistent across states are not presently available.
Precision of the estimates
The "synthetic" estimates for school districts do not have the degree of precision
normally associated with data published by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau constructed
an evaluation file with the purpose of examining the precision of these estimates. It applied the
estimation methods described above to the base data from the 1980 census, calculated
"syntehtic" estimates for 1990, and compared the results to the 1990 census.
Districts were excluded from the evaluation file if they were coterminous with counties, did not
cover the entire grade range, or were known to have changed geographic boundaries between
1980 and 1990. The remaining districts represented 61 percent of the total number of the total
number of districts and contained 56 percent of school-age children.
The estimates are known to be reasonably accurate for large districts (with a population greater
than 40,000) and for those coterminous with counties. There are, however, potentially very large
errors for small districts. The average absolute difference for school districts in the evaluation
file between the estimate of related school-age children in families in poverty and the same figure
from the 1990 census figure is 60 percent of the census figure. The results for large districts are
similar to the county model results, which have a comparable figure of only 16 percent.
The estimates for the number of school-age children and the total population are relatively more
accurate. The estimate of the number of school-age children in the evaluation file differs from
the 1990 census figure by 17 percent. For the estimate of total population, the difference is only
13 percent.
While the error relevant to the average school district is large, the error relevant to the average
poor child is much less. The difference between the evaluation file estimate and the census
figure is only 22 percent of the average number of poor children per district. This result is
obtained because most children are in large districts weree the estimates are more accurate.
For additional information about the school district estimate, visit the Census Bureau's Web
address at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/saipe/saipe95/sch_over.html.
This information was downloaded, compiled, and formatted by the Missouri State Census Data Center, a
program sponsored by the Missouri
State Library and supported under contract by the University of Missouri through the Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis and
other coordinating agencies |