Missouri and the Nation Missouri Population Growth 2000-2003: Despite A Slight Decline from the Rate of Growth During the 1990s... Missouri 2000-2003 Population Growth Compares Well With Neighboring States By July 1, 2003 Missouri population had reached 5,704,484 - an increase of 107,801 since the 2000 Census. However, that population growth rate (1.9 percent from 2000-2003) lags slightly behind the Missouri rate of growth during the 1990s when the population increased by 9.3 percent for the decade. If the1.9 percent growth rate of the 2000-2003 period continues at the same rate from 2003 to 2010, Missouri's population will have grown by 6.3 percent during the 2000-2010 decade - only about two-thirds of the 1990-2000 decade growth rate of 9.3 percent. Missouri 2000-2003 Population Growth - Compared with the Nation and Neighboring States Despite a somewhat lower rate of population growth from 2000-2003, Missouri actually improved its rank in rate of population growth among the 50 states and District of Columbia. In 2000 Missouri's 9.3 percent population growth rate placed it in a tie with Hawaii for 30th place among the states in rate of population growth for the 1990-2000 decade. However, Missouri's 1.9 percent increase from 2000-2003 placed Missouri in a tie with Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky for the 25th highest population growth rate during those three years. Among the eight states that border Missouri, only Illinois and Tennessee had greater total population growth during the 1990s. Missouri's growth of 478,000 was exceeded by an increase of 988,000 in Illinois and 812,000 in Tennessee. Among those same nine states from 2000-2003 Missouri's population increase of 107,801 was still exceeded only by Illinois and Tennessee but by a smaller margin. The population of Illinois increased by 234,000 from 2000-2003, while Tennessee increased by 152,000. Population growth from 2000-2003 in the remaining six border states - Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky - all increased by less than Missouri. Components of Population Change 1990-2000 and 2000-2003 Migration The lower rate of Missouri population growth from 2000-2003 compared with the growth rate from 1990 to 2000 is attributable entirely to a significantly smaller rate of in-migration compared with the rate during the 1990s. During the 1990s there were 258,585 more people who moved into Missouri than moved away. That was an average annual in-migration of nearly 26,000. In contrast, there was a net of only 43,115 more people who moved into Missouri than moved away from 2000-2003. That is an average of only 14,400 per year compared with nearly twice that rate of in-migration during the 1990s. From 1990-2000 there were 99 of Missouri's 115 counties that had more people move in than move away. However, from 2000-2003 there were only 71 counties that had a net in-migration. Natural Increase or Decrease In addition to migration, population change of any state, county, town, etc. is also accounted for by the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths in that place. That difference is called a "natural increase" if there were more births than deaths, or, if there were more deaths than births, it would produce a "natural decrease" in the population. During the 1990s there was a natural increase in Missouri's population of 219,553 because there were that many more babies born than people who died during that decade. That was an annual natural increase of 21,955 during the 1990s. From 2000-2003 there were 64,686 more babies born in Missouri than people who died. That is an average natural increase of 21,562 per year. That is nearly identical to the average annual increase from 1990-2000. Similarly, there was little difference in the number of counties experiencing natural increase during the 1990s (72 of the 115) and those experiencing a natural increase from 2000-2003 (70 of 115). When the natural increase is added to the net in-migration of 258,585 during the 1990s, the total Missouri population increase was 478,138 (9.3 percent increase). However, when the natural increase of 64,686 from 2000-2003 is added to net in-migration of 43,115 it produced a total population increase of 107,801 from 2000-2003. If that same rate of growth continues through the remainder of the 2000-2010 decade it will produce a 6.3 percent population increase for the decade. The Pattern of Missouri Population Change By Year 1990-2003 Graph 1 shows the year-by-year increase in Missouri population from 1990 to 2003. The graph shows that since 1990 the greatest population increase occurred during the 5-year period from 1993 to 1997. During that 5-year period Missouri's population increased by 264,092 - an average of 52,818 per year. Population growth per year during that period was much greater than during the 6-year period that followed. From 1998-2003 Missouri population increased by 223,591 - an average of 37,265 - 42 percent lower per year than the 1993-1997 population growth rate. Graph 1 click chart for larger version By looking at the pattern of population change shown on Graph 1, it is clear that the drop in population increase from 2000-2003 is not unique to the past three years. Rather, the graph shows that Missouri's average annual population increase is a continuation of the trend begun in 1998. The annual increase from 2000-2003 is nearly the same as the annual increase from 1998-2000. Comparison of In-Migration: Missouri With the Nation and Surrounding States 1990-2003 As reported above, Missouri experienced a significant decline in the rate of in- migration as a component of its population increase from 2000-2003. But so also did many other states. Missouri remains a state that is attracting population from other states and countries although at a somewhat slower pace than during the 1990s. Missouri ranked 30th nationally in the rate of population increase from 1990-2000 and tied for 25th in rate of population increase from 2000-2003. However, Missouri ranked 14th among the states in the size of in-migration population growth from 1990-2000 and ranked 18th in in-migration growth from 2000-2003. Within the group of states including Missouri and the eight states that border it, Missouri had the largest in-migration (258,000) of any of those states from 1990-2000. From 1990-2000 in-migration was an important component of population growth in all 9 states. Each had an in-migration of at least 50,000. However, from 2000-2003 Missouri had an in-migration of 43,115 that was exceeded only by Tennessee (77,870) among the eight bordering states. Four of the bordering states (Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Kansas) had a net out-migration from 2000-2003.